Porter’s Not-As-Completely Irrelevant As You Thought Draft Analysis
Breaking: As Jason points out, I may actually be good at this.
Porter’s Analysis in 2016 was 43% correct if you take out his own bias. (Credit: Jason)
Alright, here we go again.
Back by popular demand, here is my 2017 team-by-team draft analysis.
| The Commish | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (1) | Andrew Luck (Ind – QB) | $5 |
| 2. | (13) | Mark Ingram (NO – RB) | $29 |
| 3. | (25) | Darren McFadden (Dal – RB) | $12 |
| 4. | (37) | Julio Jones (Atl – WR) | $60 |
| 5. | (49) | Doug Baldwin (Sea – WR) | $41 |
| 6. | (61) | Stefon Diggs (Min – WR) | $15 |
| 7. | (73) | Delanie Walker (Ten – TE) | $5 |
| 8. | (85) | New England (NE – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (97) | Philip Rivers (LAC – QB) | $4 |
| 10. | (109) | Tyrell Williams (LAC – WR) | $1 |
| 11. | (121) | Jacquizz Rodgers (TB – RB) | $7 |
| 12. | (133) | Ted Ginn Jr. (NO – WR) | $7 |
| 13. | (145) | Darren Sproles (Phi – RB) | $6 |
| 14. | (157) | Jamaal Charles (Den – RB) | $2 |
| 15. | (169) | Paul Richardson (Sea – WR) | $5 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
So I went into the draft with a David Johnson strategy and a non-David Johnson strategy. My non-DJ strategy — which came into effect when Tepel went to $70 — was to acquire both Odell and Julio. However, when AB went for $59 and Goodman bid up Odell to $63, I pussed out and settled for Doug Baldwin as my WR2 — a solid, underrated WR I do like.
Other than that, I accomplished what I wanted to. I think I’ll be able to find two reliable PPR backs out of Ingram, Rodgers, McFadden, and Sproles on a weekly basis to combine with strong WR play.
With Luck/Rivers and Walker, I am stronger at QB and TE than I thought I’d be.
Grade: B
Strength: Pass catchers and QB upside
Weakness: RB
X-Factor: Andrew Luck $5
Best value pick: Tyrell Williams $1
| Bradyansky Cooks | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (2) | Tom Brady (NE – QB) | $17 |
| 2. | (14) | Ezekiel Elliott (Dal – RB) | $27 |
| 3. | (26) | LeGarrette Blount (Phi – RB) | $6 |
| 4. | (38) | DeAndre Hopkins (Hou – WR) | $37 |
| 5. | (50) | Brandin Cooks (NE – WR) | $44 |
| 6. | (62) | Martellus Bennett (GB – TE) | $4 |
| 7. | (74) | Jarvis Landry (Mia – WR) | $17 |
| 8. | (86) | Houston (Hou – DEF) | $2 |
| 9. | (98) | Eddie Lacy (Sea – RB) | $5 |
| 10. | (110) | Brandon Marshall (NYG – WR) | $11 |
| 11. | (122) | Paul Perkins (NYG – RB) | $11 |
| 12. | (134) | Cameron Meredith (Chi – WR) | $6 |
| 13. | (146) | Duke Johnson Jr. (Cle – RB) | $11 |
| 14. | (158) | Austin Hooper (Atl – TE) | $1 |
| 15. | (170) | D’Onta Foreman (Hou – RB) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Stan gambled on Ezekiel Elliott for a fair price of $27. Zeke could miss six games and then has a bye in Week 7.
With Nuk, Cooks, Landry, Marshall, and Meredith Stan seems pretty solid at WR. He will need to find reliability at the RB position, especially if Zeke misses 7 weeks. If he escapes the Zeke suspension, he’ll be rock solid.
On the flip side, Stan doesn’t have any top 12 overall rated players, which could haunt him.
Grade: C
Strength: Wide Receivers
Weakness: RB
X-Factor: Ezekiel Elliott $27
Best value pick: Eddie Lacy $5
| GoodmansGreatGuesses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (3) | Kirk Cousins (Was – QB) | $4 |
| 2. | (15) | Jay Ajayi (Mia – RB) | $14 |
| 3. | (27) | Devonta Freeman (Atl – RB) | $49 |
| 4. | (39) | Mike Evans (TB – WR) | $58 |
| 5. | (51) | Amari Cooper (Oak – WR) | $45 |
| 6. | (63) | Hunter Henry (LAC – TE) | $1 |
| 7. | (75) | Jamison Crowder (Was – WR) | $21 |
| 8. | (87) | Minnesota (Min – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (99) | Rishard Matthews (Ten – WR) | $1 |
| 10. | (111) | James White (NE – RB) | $1 |
| 11. | (123) | Kenny Golladay (Det – WR) | $1 |
| 12. | (135) | Chris Thompson (Was – RB) | $1 |
| 13. | (147) | Shane Vereen (NYG – RB) | $1 |
| 14. | (159) | J.J. Nelson (Ari – WR) | $1 |
| 15. | (171) | Allen Hurns (Jax – WR) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Jason went with the stars and scrubs approach, for the most part, whether he planned to or not. And it worked. Two solid RB’s and three solid WRs with a strong bench. I really like some of his $1 guys — Matthews, Thompson, Vereen, and Nelson especially.
To be honest, I’m not super high on Freeman or Ajayi (keeper for $14), but the FF world seems to like both.
Grade: B+
Strength: Solid throughout
Weakness: TE
X-Factor: Jay Ajayi $14
Best value pick: Jamison Crowder, $21
| Kret | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (4) | Matthew Stafford (Det – QB) | $1 |
| 2. | (16) | Le’Veon Bell (Pit – RB) | $59 |
| 3. | (28) | Dalvin Cook (Min – RB) | $26 |
| 4. | (40) | Sammy Watkins (LAR – WR) | $16 |
| 5. | (52) | Allen Robinson (Jax – WR) | $26 |
| 6. | (64) | Rob Gronkowski (NE – TE) | $34 |
| 7. | (76) | DeVante Parker (Mia – WR) | $10 |
| 8. | (88) | Philadelphia (Phi – DEF) | $2 |
| 9. | (100) | Kareem Hunt (KC – RB) | $9 |
| 10. | (112) | Corey Davis (Ten – WR) | $4 |
| 11. | (124) | Thomas Rawls (Sea – RB) | $6 |
| 12. | (136) | Zay Jones (Buf – WR) | $1 |
| 13. | (148) | Rob Kelley (Was – RB) | $1 |
| 14. | (160) | Cooper Kupp (LAR – WR) | $1 |
| 15. | (172) | James Conner (Pit – RB) | $1 |
| Unused | $3 | ||
Scott kept Le’Veon Bell and went after his boy Gronk, giving him a strong 1-2 punch that makes up nearly 50% of his budget.
Where he took a hit was at the WR position with three boom or bust options on bad football teams in Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, and DeVante Parker as his top guys.
Grade: C+
Strength: Star Power
Weakness: QB/WR
X-Factor: Dalvin Cook $26
Best value pick: Davante Parker $10
| A.Goodman | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (5) | Drew Brees (NO – QB) | $15 |
| 2. | (17) | Spencer Ware (KC – RB) | $19 |
| 3. | (29) | Adrian Peterson (NO – RB) | $15 |
| 4. | (41) | Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG – WR) | $63 |
| 5. | (53) | A.J. Green (Cin – WR) | $55 |
| 6. | (65) | Jack Doyle (Ind – TE) | $2 |
| 7. | (77) | Randall Cobb (GB – WR) | $10 |
| 8. | (89) | Jacksonville (Jax – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (101) | Mike Wallace (Bal – WR) | $3 |
| 10. | (113) | Dion Lewis (NE – RB) | $3 |
| 11. | (125) | John Brown (Ari – WR) | $2 |
| 12. | (137) | Matt Forte (NYJ – RB) | $3 |
| 13. | (149) | Marvin Jones Jr. (Det – WR) | $6 |
| 14. | (161) | Jamaal Williams (GB – RB) | $2 |
| 15. | (173) | Tavon Austin (LAR – WR) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Coming off a putrid 2016 draft, Goodman rebounded nicely. His Odell-AJ WR tandem is the best WR duo in the league and a scary combination to face.
If Goodman misses the playoff it will certainly be because of his fantasy zombie RB corps of AP, Spencer Ware, Matt Forte, Dion Lewis, and rookie Jamaal Williams.
Ps. I can’t believe it’s 2017 and we’re still drafting Tavon Austin.
Grade: B
Strength: WR/QB
Weakness: RB
X-Factor: Randall Cobb $10
Best value pick: Mike Wallace $3
| AP Wilmer | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (6) | Marcus Mariota (Ten – QB) | $8 |
| 2. | (18) | Leonard Fournette (Jax – RB) | $35 |
| 3. | (30) | Christian McCaffrey (Car – RB) | $37 |
| 4. | (42) | DeSean Jackson (TB – WR) | $8 |
| 5. | (54) | Kelvin Benjamin (Car – WR) | $25 |
| 6. | (66) | Travis Kelce (KC – TE) | $25 |
| 7. | (78) | Bilal Powell (NYJ – RB) | $25 |
| 8. | (90) | Denver (Den – DEF) | $3 |
| 9. | (102) | Pierre Garcon (SF – WR) | $5 |
| 10. | (114) | Latavius Murray (Min – RB) | $5 |
| 11. | (126) | Jeremy Hill (Cin – RB) | $2 |
| 12. | (138) | Adam Thielen (Min – WR) | $6 |
| 13. | (150) | Cole Beasley (Dal – WR) | $8 |
| 14. | (162) | O.J. Howard (TB – TE) | $1 |
| 15. | (174) | Carson Wentz (Phi – QB) | $4 |
| Unused | $3 | ||
In true Damien fashion, Damien snagged two of the top three rated rookie running backs in Fournette and McCaffrey for a combined $72. It will certainly be a boom or bust tandem.
His WRs are balanced nicely with a high upside tandem in D-Jax and Benjamin and a high floor tandem in Garcon and Beasley.
To be honest, I’m not sure Damien has the star power to be consistent enough on a week-to-week basis.
Grade: C
Strength: QB/TE
Weakness: Lack of star power
X-Factor: Both rookie RB’s
Best value pick: Cole Beasley $8
| goldbergs gorillas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (7) | Cam Newton (Car – QB) | $5 |
| 2. | (19) | Theo Riddick (Det – RB) | $12 |
| 3. | (31) | Lamar Miller (Hou – RB) | $40 |
| 4. | (43) | T.Y. Hilton (Ind – WR) | $35 |
| 5. | (55) | Michael Thomas (NO – WR) | $50 |
| 6. | (67) | Jordan Reed (Was – TE) | $7 |
| 7. | (79) | Tevin Coleman (Atl – RB) | $13 |
| 8. | (91) | Baltimore (Bal – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (103) | C.J. Anderson (Den – RB) | $9 |
| 10. | (115) | Eric Decker (Ten – WR) | $13 |
| 11. | (127) | Mike Gillislee (NE – RB) | $11 |
| 12. | (139) | Devontae Booker (Den – RB) | $1 |
| 13. | (151) | Kevin White (Chi – WR) | $1 |
| 14. | (163) | Jalen Richard (Oak – RB) | $1 |
| 15. | (175) | Devin Funchess (Car – WR) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Cam Newton and Mike Goldberg just belong together. I expect a bounce back year from Cam, too.
I like his WR’s in TY and Michael Thomas, but Mike doesn’t have much WR depth. $40 is an expensive price for arguably the NFL’s most overrated player in Lamar Miller, but between Gillislee and Richard and Riddick, he may be OK there.
All in all, solid work.
Grade: B-
Strength: Balanced
Weakness: RB
X-Factor: Jordan Reed $7
Best value pick: Devin Funchess $1
| Tepel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (8) | Dak Prescott (Dal – QB) | $1 |
| 2. | (20) | David Johnson (Ari – RB) | $70 |
| 3. | (32) | Carlos Hyde (SF – RB) | $15 |
| 4. | (44) | Terrelle Pryor Sr. (Was – WR) | $40 |
| 5. | (56) | Keenan Allen (LAC – WR) | $33 |
| 6. | (68) | Golden Tate (Det – WR) | $21 |
| 7. | (80) | Zach Ertz (Phi – TE) | $1 |
| 8. | (92) | Arizona (Ari – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (104) | Donte Moncrief (Ind – WR) | $6 |
| 10. | (116) | Rex Burkhead (NE – RB) | $5 |
| 11. | (128) | Sterling Shepard (NYG – WR) | $2 |
| 12. | (140) | Robert Turbin (Ind – RB) | $2 |
| 13. | (152) | Kenny Stills (Mia – WR) | $1 |
| 14. | (164) | Josh Gordon (Cle – WR) | $1 |
| 15. | (176) | Chris Carson (Sea – RB) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Tepel loves him some David Johnson. He’ll own DJ for the third year in a row, an unconfirmed league record.
Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are clearly the best two players in FF, so Tepel decided to spend for the one guy that was available. It gives him a massive advantage at RB, but the risk is huge as well — as Tepel is now relying heavily on one player. If DJ gets hurt, he’d be in big trouble.
DJ had 373 touches last season and 20 total touchdowns (!!). If DJ repeats that, or comes close, then Tepel will contend for the title barring an unforeseen circumstance and there’s nothing we can really do about it.
Pryor-Allen-Tate gives Tepel a solid mix of upside and safety in his WR portfolio. I don’t love his bench.
Grade: B
Strength: David Johnson
Weakness: Depth
X-Factor: Keenan Allen $33
Best value pick: Rex Burhead $5
| LTs Little Ballers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (9) | Jameis Winston (TB – QB) | $7 |
| 2. | (21) | Todd Gurley (LAR – RB) | $36 |
| 3. | (33) | Ty Montgomery (GB – RB) | $31 |
| 4. | (45) | Demaryius Thomas (Den – WR) | $31 |
| 5. | (57) | Alshon Jeffery (Phi – WR) | $36 |
| 6. | (69) | Tyler Eifert (Cin – TE) | $5 |
| 7. | (81) | Marshawn Lynch (Oak – RB) | $22 |
| 8. | (93) | Seattle (Sea – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (105) | Matt Ryan (Atl – QB) | $6 |
| 10. | (117) | Jordan Matthews (Buf – WR) | $5 |
| 11. | (129) | Frank Gore (Ind – RB) | $7 |
| 12. | (141) | Kenny Britt (Cle – WR) | $1 |
| 13. | (153) | Derrick Henry (Ten – RB) | $9 |
| 14. | (165) | Mike Williams (LAC – WR) | $2 |
| 15. | (177) | Eric Ebron (Det – TE) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Lintbarmus amazingly bid on e v e r y s i n g l e p l a y e r from across the country, but still managed to put together a decent squad.
However, his team has a ton of variance in it, creating a boom or bust type season for Linto.
His Todd Gurley-Ty Montgomery RB tandem for $67 could pay dividends, with Marshawn Lynch and a potential double-digit touchdown season there as well. At WR, Demaryius and Alshon should produce at least decent numbers.
Grade: B-
Strength: RB and RB Depth
Weakness: WR and WR Depth
X-Factor: Marshawn Lynch $22
Best value pick: Demaryius Thomas $31
| PhillipP’s Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (10) | Ben Roethlisberger (Pit – QB) | $1 |
| 2. | (22) | Jordan Howard (Chi – RB) | $20 |
| 3. | (34) | Danny Woodhead (Bal – RB) | $20 |
| 4. | (46) | Antonio Brown (Pit – WR) | $59 |
| 5. | (58) | Larry Fitzgerald (Ari – WR) | $20 |
| 6. | (70) | Greg Olsen (Car – TE) | $19 |
| 7. | (82) | Tyreek Hill (KC – WR) | $10 |
| 8. | (94) | Breshad Perriman (Bal – WR) | $2 |
| 9. | (106) | Martavis Bryant (Pit – WR) | $12 |
| 10. | (118) | Ameer Abdullah (Det – RB) | $15 |
| 11. | (130) | Jeremy Maclin (Bal – WR) | $10 |
| 12. | (142) | Willie Snead (NO – WR) | $6 |
| 13. | (154) | Samaje Perine (Was – RB) | $3 |
| 14. | (166) | Derek Carr (Oak – QB) | $2 |
| 15. | (178) | Taylor Gabriel (Atl – WR) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Phil put together yet another rock solid draft.
His WR group of Brown-Fitz-Hill-Bryant-Maclin-Snead is as good as it gets from top to bottom. Phil kept Jordan Howard and got the highest floor PPR RB2 there is, in Woodhead. With Samaje Perine and Ameer Abdullah, he still acquired some high upside RB’s as well. And Big Ben/Derek Carr at QB should be fine.
Can’t find any errors here.
Grade: A
Strength: WR and WR Depth
Weakness: QB
X-Factor: Martavis Bryant $12
Best value pick: Larry Fitzgerald $20
| Snake | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (11) | Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB) | $25 |
| 2. | (23) | Melvin Gordon (LAC – RB) | $25 |
| 3. | (35) | Isaiah Crowell (Cle – RB) | $15 |
| 4. | (47) | Jordy Nelson (GB – WR) | $50 |
| 5. | (59) | Michael Crabtree (Oak – WR) | $23 |
| 6. | (71) | Kyle Rudolph (Min – TE) | $5 |
| 7. | (83) | Emmanuel Sanders (Den – WR) | $20 |
| 8. | (95) | Kansas City (KC – DEF) | $2 |
| 9. | (107) | Tyler Lockett (Sea – WR) | $1 |
| 10. | (119) | Doug Martin (TB – RB) | $18 |
| 11. | (131) | Robby Anderson (NYJ – WR) | $1 |
| 12. | (143) | Terrance West (Bal – RB) | $2 |
| 13. | (155) | Jonathan Stewart (Car – RB) | $7 |
| 14. | (167) | Mohamed Sanu (Atl – WR) | $2 |
| 15. | (179) | Giovani Bernard (Cin – RB) | $4 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
Snake kept Melvin Gordon and decided to use his extra money on Aaron Rodgers — not a strategy I personally love, but we’ll see.
Isaiah Crowell as a RB2 is strong — but his upside is limited on the Browns. Crabtree is similar to Crowell, in that he’s a reliable high floor WR2 to complement a dynamic counterpart in Jordy Nelson.
Grade: B
Strength: QB and balance
Weakness: Upside
X-Factor: Doug Martin $18
Best value pick: Isaiah Crowell $15
| Sandusky’s Showers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | $200 | ||
| 1. | (12) | Russell Wilson (Sea – QB) | $16 |
| 2. | (24) | DeMarco Murray (Ten – RB) | $17 |
| 3. | (36) | LeSean McCoy (Buf – RB) | $51 |
| 4. | (48) | Dez Bryant (Dal – WR) | $40 |
| 5. | (60) | Julian Edelman (NE – WR) | $19 |
| 6. | (72) | Jimmy Graham (Sea – TE) | $15 |
| 7. | (84) | Davante Adams (GB – WR) | $11 |
| 8. | (96) | Carolina (Car – DEF) | $1 |
| 9. | (108) | Andy Dalton (Cin – QB) | $1 |
| 10. | (120) | Joe Mixon (Cin – RB) | $19 |
| 11. | (132) | C.J. Prosise (Sea – RB) | $3 |
| 12. | (144) | Corey Coleman (Cle – WR) | $4 |
| 13. | (156) | Marqise Lee (Jax – WR) | $1 |
| 14. | (168) | Josh Doctson (Was – WR) | $1 |
| 15. | (180) | Jonathan Williams (Buf – RB) | $1 |
| Unused | $0 | ||
The defending champ put together a relatively risky roster.
Keeping Murray for $17 was a no-brainer, but he paired Murray with a 29-year-old LeSean McCoy on a bad Bills team for $51. Highly ranked, but not my personal cup of tea.
Dez-Edelman-Adams is solid, but not scary at WR. The Wilson-Graham stack could give LaRose all of the upside he needs, however.
Grade: B-
Strength: QB and RB
Weakness: WR
X-Factor: Joe Mixon $19
Best value pick: Davante Adams $11
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