2020 (Online Auction Draft) – COVID and Hot Coffee
Wow, what a year. Flashback to the summer, the greatest Fantasy Football League in all of the world was facing many tough questions:
1. Will there even be a season?
2. Where will we draft?
3. Who will replace Jason Goodman?
Well, to no one’s surprise, we came through again for the 19th straight year—and yes there was a season, the draft took place online for the first time (and hopefully last time) since 2006 due to COVID, and we replaced one set of brothers (the Goodman’s) with another (the Wilmer’s) by adding Aaron Wilmer.
Let’s be honest. Expectations for Aaron were not high. Sure, any one can win a Fantasy Football championship, but this isn’t any Fantasy Football League. Aaron, I’m assuming, has never played in an auction league or a superflex league before, and here he was. Thrown into the fire for a $300 buy in. High stakes with the big boys and boy, did he respond, completing the greatest rookie season in The Annex’s existence.
Read More…Tepel makes his Aaron vs. Scott prediction
Aaron
David “ Grab your Balls “ Montgomery has been red hot since he came back from an injury with back to back 25+ point weeks. Look for that to continue this week vs the Texans who are giving up whopping 31.6 PPR FB to RBs this year. As well as the most 100yd games to RBs this season with 6.
Travis Kelce has be dominant this season by far the TE 1 with more than 48 fantasy points than the next TE (Waller who had 45 points last week). Kelce has also had 25+ fantasy points in 4 out of his last 5 games. Kelce accounts for a third of 100-yard receiving games from tight ends this season. The good thing for Scott is the dolphins have been the 6th best defense vs TEs this year.
Brady/Tannehill one is coming of multiple losses and a bye, while the other is coming off arguably their worst loss of the season and both are looking to snap back into QB1 range with 2 great matchups this week. They get the Jaguars and Vikings, who are 3rd and 5th in passing TDs allowed this season (giving up 2 or more a game). The Jags have given up 2nd most 300 Yard passing games this year
Henry Not much needs to be said here, arguably the number 1 player you want on your roster this playoff season. Last week he had a season low 15 carries because of the early defect, so he should be nice and rested to go at the Jags who have given up 28 Fantasy points per game to RBs.
Jefferson has been absolute stud this year (thanks Howie), Over the last month he is top 5 in the NFL In target share % at 28.2% and is averaging 23.1 fantasy during that span.
Gaskin has been great this year for Aaron and probably the best/most important move he has made all year by signing him. This is a pretty decent match up for gaskins who just dominates his teams RB touches when he plays. The dolphins will probably trail most of the game which will lead to a ton of targets for Gaskins, KC has given up the 7th most WR yards to RBs because they are usually in control of the game.
Scott
Brown gets a juicy matchup vs Jaguars who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (3rd most over the past month), including 3rd most to the perimeter WR over the past month. Brown plays the perimeter 85% of the time. The jags have allowed a WR to go over 100 yards 8 times this year.
Godwin has a decent match vs the Vikings who are the 4th worst rank def vs WRs and have given up the 2nd most TDs to WRs this year. ( Did anybody notice I just took exactly what I wrote for AB in the earlier matchup). Also want to note that Evans has now missed practice the last 2 days.
Thomas has been a decent TE over the last month of the season since Alex Smith took over and after last week it looks like their connection is only growing. Unfortunately they get the 49ers this week who are the best ranked def vs TE this year giving up only an avg of 3 catches for 31 yards per game this season and have only given up 10+ points to a TE twice this year.
Julio unfortunately is going up the chargers who are the 5th best ranked defense vs WRs this year, with a -6.6 ADJ. FPA. ( as I am writing this julio has been ruled out, so carry on). * Aiyuk matchup isn’t much better, the football team is the 3rd best ranked defense vs WRs this year. I actually think this gives Scott some upside though, Ajyuk since week 7 when he has played has gotten 30.8% target share which is top five among wide receivers. He is also the WR 4 in fantasy PPG since week 7.
Zeke has been BAD since they lost Dak, kudos to Scott for making the playoffs with his highest paid player being terrible. Which is worse than an injury since he still has to kind of has to start him week in and week out. The good thing is the cowboys are favorite on the road this week vs the bengals who have given up the 5th most rushing yards to RBs this year.
Drake who was limited in practice today (something to keep an eye on) gets the Giants this week who are a very good defense team. Actually they are the worst def in the NFL vs receiving RBs giving up the most yards and receptions to RBs. The bad thing for Scott here is that Edmonds takes more than 50% of the RB targets for the team.
Hurts Scotts biggest X factor by far this week. He gets the saints who are a top 4 def vs QBs (only 16 points per game) and the number 1 Def vs rushing QB ( They have yet to really go up against a running QB this year). Another thing going against hurts is the saints practice against a Running QB all week and Payton game-plans for a rushing QB. People can tell me all they want that hurts isn’t a run first QB and that’s fine. However, for him to survive with the Eagles O-line vs the Saints number 1 D-line he will need to run, and get out of the pocket quick. I do think it is the right play by Scott here though as Doug will do everything possible to get hurts going ( quick passes, designed runs, roll him out and sanders running the ball). He has potential to have a great game because of his legs.
Predictions
“ Hot coffee “, I’m going with A dot here. I think he gets his first playoff win in his first season. His matchups/ players are just too much to bet against this week.
Team Kret has prepared a the following statement, after I let him know I was going with the rookie here.
“Mr. Wilmer has a strong team but we remain resilient and extremely confident. We tried to test the young manager often this season with lowball trade offers which he impressively saw through. He’s a great addition to the league but I believe it is not yet his time. This year we scrapped and clawed- stashing Hurts before weeks before Wentz’s inevitable benching. Found Antonio Brown well before he was signed, traded for A.J. Brown from the notoriously difficult to trade with Linto, etc. Mahomes, 3 stud WRs and a hopeful RB1 performance out of Zeke vs the bengals is our formula for success with Hurts as the wild card. Team Kret feels disrespected as a former recent champion and constant league threat. The bulletin board material has mounted for our championship run.” Team Kret
Tepel makes his prediction for the Porter vs. Goodman matchup
Tough matchup up that I think it will be close, A few key players to watch on each team…
PORTER
Adams will feast this week, 2nd in the league in target share over the last month to go along with playing Detroit who has allowed the 2nd most points to WR over the last month. Expect a big day from Adam
Waller is coming off a monster 45 point game vs the jets who are the 32 ranked defense vs TE, luckily for goodman the colts are 3rd in league vs TE and have only given up 1 TD to a TE this year
IF CMC plays, he will be CMC. The time off will not matter as last time he missed an extended period of time he came back to drop 37 fantasy points ( against me unfortunately). Now the question will be active, we know the panthers will be cautious with him, they are pretty much out of the playoff picture and he did tweak his calf.
AB I actually think brown over Wentz gives porter an higher upside play. The last few weeks before the bye the Bucs offense look stagnate I think they took the bye week to get AB more involved and the Vikings are the 4th worst rank def vs WRs and have given up the 2nd most TDs to WRs this year.
CAM has been very reliable for porter this year if you take out week 7 ( when he just got back from Covid) and a few week ago vs Arizona. This week he gets the Rams who have given up the 2nd least fantasy points to QBs this year. However I would take that with a grain of salt since CAM isn’t getting fantasy points like typical QB. He is been doing to mostly with his legs and the rams are actually in the bottom half of the league when it comes to QB rushing points.
GOODMAN
Thomas and Hill are 1st and 3rd in the league in target share percentage (37.1% and 30%) over the last month and both have very favorable matchups. Thomas vs the eagles, we saw what Metcalf (10-177-0) and Adams (10-121-2) did vs them the last 2 weeks and now slay is questionable to play with a calf injury and has yet to practice this week.
Taylor/Hines His decision to start both colts RBs is an interesting one, but the colts are clearly using both of them and they have a 27 point team total this week. The raiders are the 5th worst defense vs RBs this year.
Ebron coming off back to back 11 target games has a plus matchup vs the bills who have given up the most catches and 2nd most receiving yards to TEs this year.
Russ “let russ cook” started off so well this year and has been on a downward slide for the last month +, he hasn’t had a Top 10 QB performance since week 8. I don’t think goodman can win this week if Russ doesn’t have a top 10 QB finish, good thing for goodman Russ is a 13.5 point home favorite with a 30.5 team total in a must win game. Look for russ to get back on track this week with a 25+ point performance.
Prediction
I am going with the upset in this one, while I think porter has the better team and more upside plays with his 4 WRs and CMC. I think the fire power of Hill and Thomas will too much for porter to handle.
Check back later in the week for the Scott vs. Wilmer matchup
2020 quarterfinals matchups and betting lines
The 2020 Fantasy Football playoffs are here.
First off, congrats to Mike LaRose for his comeback 1st place victor, his second career 1st place finish securing $1,100 and a first-round bye. Tough ending for Phil, but he earns his 10th career playoff berth and a first-round bye as well.
LaRose, Porter, and Goodman will all be looking a league-high third championship victory.
Here are the Week 14 quarterfinals matchups.
6. Goodman (+3, +110) at 3. Porter
For the third time this season and second time in two weeks, Goodman and Porter will face off, this matchup being the most important. Porter is 2-0 in the season series, but that all goes out the window when the matchup kicks off on Thursday night.
There are plenty of variables that will be determined during the week like the status of: Christian McCaffrey and Goodman’s decision on which two RBs to start out of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Ito Smith, or James White.
As for the matchup on paper, it seems like Goodman gets the better of them. Russell Wilson is looking to bounce back and has a legit shot to be the top scoring fantasy player in Week 14, as he gets the Jets. Goodman’s terrifying WRs—Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill—get the Eagles and Dolphins, respectively, two plus matchups.
Porter’s best matchup is Davante Adams against the Lions. But other than that, he is facing a lot of red, with the scariest being Kareem Hunt at the Ravens. With Carson Wentz headed to the bench, it appears Porter is rolling the high upside dice with Antonio Brown in a favorable matchup vs. the Vikings.
This matchup kicks off on Thursday night with the Patriots-Rams, with Cam Newton going for Porter and Cooper Kupp going for Goodman.
Goodman is a three-point road dog, which means Vegas sees this an even game.
5. Aaron (-3.5, -125) at Kret
The veteran Kret snuck into the playoffs with some final week magic, while the newcomer A.Dot surged into the playoffs winning his last four games.
This two teams have faced each other just once this season, with Aaron winning an ugly one, 92-85.
When glancing at this matchup the first thing that pops off the screen is Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville. Henry is just two weeks removed from a 38 point performance and the Jags are the league’s third-worst rushing defense allowing 136.9 yards per game on the ground. David Montgomery, coming off a two-TD game and back-to-back 25+ FP performances, gets the league’s second worst rushing defense in Houston.
Having said that, Kret’s matchup are certainly enticing as well, as Patrick Mahomes gets the far-from-scary Dolphins and Chris Godwin a bottom-7 pass defense in the Vikings.
The overlap in this matchup makes things very interesting, as Aaron has Tom Brady and Kret has Godwin, while Kret has Patrick Mahomes and Aaron has Travis Kelce. Also, Aaron has Ryan Tannehill and Henry, while Kret has A.J. Brown. Really weird.
The biggest decision of the matchup is Kret superflexing Eagles rookie QB Jalen Hurts against the Saints. His most likely other option would be Drew Lock at the Panthers, but it looks like Kret is going to roll with the mobile Hurts, in hopes of some upside.
Aaron is a slight road favorite, mostly because of Tennessee’s glorious matchup against the Jags.
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